A prominent Washington-based think tank has urged President Donald Trump not to extend diplomatic recognition to Somaliland, warning the move would yield no strategic benefits while creating significant political and security risks in the Horn of Africa. The Defense Priorities organization cautioned that abandoning the longstanding United States commitment to Somalia's territorial integrity could trigger state collapse, draw Washington deeper into a complex conflict, and hand the militant group Al-Shabaab a powerful recruitment tool. The recommendations appear in a July 14 report titled "Exiting Somalia’s War: End US Military Operations," authored by senior fellow William Walldorf. While the document does not indicate the Trump administration has already decided to recognize Hargeisa, it analyzes the severe potential fallout if Washington alters its diplomatic posture. The US recently reaffirmed its recognition of Somalia's sovereignty and internationally recognized borders following Israel's December 2025 decision to formally recognize Somaliland. Mogadishu fiercely condemned the Israeli decision as an unlawful attack on its sovereignty, pledging to use all diplomatic, political, and legal measures to defend its territory. Somaliland declared independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991 following the collapse of the central government in Mogadishu, and has spent the decades since establishing its own government institutions, currency, and independent security forces. Leaders in Hargeisa base their ongoing campaign for international recognition on the region's brief status as an independent nation in June 1960. The former British protectorate gained independence just days before it voluntarily merged with the Italian-administered territory to establish the unified Somali Republic. According to Defense Priorities, granting American recognition to Somaliland would ignite fierce nationalist resentment across Somalia, which Al-Shabaab would quickly exploit for its own militant campaigns. The report states that validation of Hargeisa's independence would "fuel long-held Somali nationalistic concerns about foreign encroachment," driving up insurgent recruitment. The authors pointed to the crisis triggered by a January 2024 maritime memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland—an agreement landlocked Ethiopia sought for Red Sea access—as a prime example of how Al-Shabaab weaponized a sovereignty dispute to cast itself as the ultimate defender of Somali autonomy. The think tank argues that an American policy shift would provoke an even more intense political backlash due to the extensive US footprint in the country over the last two decades. The United States has maintained a continuous military presence as part of its counterterrorism campaign, actively trained Somali federal troops, and conducted regular airstrikes against both Al-Shabaab and Islamic State targets. Rather than advancing American security interests, recognizing Somaliland could leave Washington trapped by its past military investments, ultimately forcing successive administrations to deploy additional resources to manage the resulting chaos rather than withdrawing. Beyond the immediate insurgency threat, the report warns that formal US recognition could deeply fracture Somalia's fragile federal structure. Such a move might encourage regional member states like Puntland and Jubaland to further distance themselves from the federal government in Mogadishu. This accelerated political fragmentation would severely weaken the federal system and create wider ungoverned spaces for Al-Shabaab, which already controls or contests broad stretches of territory in southern and central Somalia by exploiting clan grievances and administrative disputes. A shift in Washington's stance also risks igniting a broader regional conflict, particularly if a nation of over 100 million people like Ethiopia follows the US lead to secure its desired Gulf of Aden port access. Somalia insists any agreements involving its coastline require explicit approval from Mogadishu, and direct confrontation over the issue could draw in Egypt, which has recently deepened its political and security partnership with the Somali federal government to counter its historical rival in Addis Ababa. The African Union continues to strongly oppose recognizing Somaliland, cautioning that unilateral recognition would set a dangerous precedent for separatist movements across the entire continent. Policy debates within Washington think tanks directly dictate the flow of military funding, specialized training, and aerial support the Somali federal government relies on to conduct operations in the southern regions. These strategic recommendations arrive while the political relationship between Mogadishu and federal member states like Puntland and Jubaland remains highly sensitive, meaning any shift in American diplomacy would instantly disrupt the balance of internal Somali politics.